My tweets

[redheadedfemme]

• Fri, 17:29: Jon Stewart at NY telethon: "Maybe the marathon Sunday isn't such a good idea after all." Y'all listening, Mayor? #fb
• Fri, 17:36: At least Steven Tyler and Joe Perry are getting along again, I suppose. #SandyHelp #fb
• Fri, 17:43: Well, I sure hope they let Bruce Springsteen close the show. #SandyHelp #fb
• Fri, 18:14: Rachel Maddow's pointing out all Repub Presidential candidates go to Pennsylvania the last days, and they all lose. #fb
• Fri, 18:15: This is called "beating one's head against a brick wall." #fb

Comments

Losing Pennsylvania

[amqu.livejournal.com]

Winning PA would be a surprise, though not impossible. Nate Silver does have Obama's chance of winning re-election at 83.7% However, I think Nate Silver's statistical model might be computing faulty input. His model works if you're using 2008 voting patterns which was low Republican turnout and exceptionally high Democrat turnout. 2012 is going to be much closer to 2010 than 2008.

Re: Losing Pennsylvania

[redheadedfemme]

You sure about that? From what I've been reading, early turnout seems to be exceptionally high, far more than 2010. See here, here and here.

This is from Florida, where one county shows early turnout up 10 percent from 2008.

I just don't think people are staying home. They know what's at stake in this election.

Re: Losing Pennsylvania

[amqu.livejournal.com]

I don't know about Florida. In Ohio, early voting for Dems, while still higher than Repubs, is down significantly. Repubs, meanwhile, are up significantly. It's a more than 200,000 vote swing, canceling out the advantage Obama had in Ohio in 2008. I dunno if that holds up in other states, though.